CYCLONE PREDICTION—

Reliable Forecasts That Make a Difference

Cyclones don’t arrive unannounced — not when Meteora is watching the skies

At Meteora Weather Service, cyclone prediction isn’t just a technical process — it’s a mission driven by accountability, science, and experience. In a region as cyclonically active as the Indian subcontinent, where lives, infrastructure, agriculture, and industry often lie in the path of severe storms, timely and accurate cyclone forecasting can be the difference between chaos and control.

We monitor global oceanic and atmospheric patterns, especially in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, to forecast cyclones by interpreting early indicators like wind shear and ocean temperature.

But it’s not just about detecting a storm. It’s about understanding its intent.
Where is it heading? How strong will it get? What regions will feel its full force? What could the surge do to coastal towns? When will the rain begin, and how much will fall?

At Meteora, every cyclone forecast is built with a purpose — to give people, businesses, and communities the time they need to prepare, respond, and recover. Our prediction models are calibrated to regional topography, local vulnerabilities, and real-world ground realities, not just global datasets. This localized understanding ensures our forecasts are both scientifically robust and practically useful.

When a cyclone looms, we’re not watching from the sidelines.
We’re already in motion — analyzing, alerting, and guiding.

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Monitoring Systems

Continuous monitoring of the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal for potential disturbances using satellite imagery, ocean buoy data, and weather radar inputs to analyze sea surface temperatures, pressure systems, and wind patterns.

Identifying Cyclogenesis

It involves detecting low-pressure areas and assessing their potential to intensify into depressions or cyclones. This assessment is based on comparing various national and international forecasting models.

Projecting Path, Intensity & Landfall

Utilize multiple forecasting models to determine probable cyclone paths and estimate wind speeds, rainfall potential, storm surge, and wave heights. This enables us to pinpoint expected landfall time and location, often 7 to 10 days in advance.

Issuing Time-Stamped Alerts

We issue initial cyclone alerts up to 168 hours before landfall and refine these alerts at 3-6 hour intervals as the cyclone nears land. Our forecasts include the cyclone’s position, likely intensity, and impact zones.

Who Uses Our Cyclone Forecasts

Our cyclone prediction services support a wide range of users, enabling faster and safer decisions:


Disaster Management Authorities — For planning evacuation and relief logistics
State & Municipal Governments — For issuing public warnings and mobilising resources
Port & Maritime Operators — For vessel rerouting, berthing delays, and cargo safety
Infrastructure Companies — For securing construction sites and transport corridors
Logistics & Supply Chains — For route planning and inventory movement
Insurance Firms — For assessing exposure and early response planning
Power & Utility Providers — For grid safety, outage management, and crew deployment
Agriculture — To provide cyclone 🌀 and its impact-based forecast related to the crop and its long-term effect after landfall.
Software and IT — To get or provide raw meteorological data.

List of Cyclones that hit India from 2019 to 2024

India’s cyclone season is closely tied to the summer monsoon, with the most intense storms typically forming in the pre-monsoon period (May to June) and the post-monsoon period (October to November).

Here’s the list of the destructive cyclones that have hit India from 2019 till now. Some of the most notable cyclones include :

History of Timely Cyclone Forecast

2020Cyclone Amphan

Super Cyclone Amphan: A Case Study (Meteora Perspective)

Meteora Weather Service was instrumental in early prediction and continuous monitoring of Cyclone Amphan.
Pre-Cyclone Analysis: Using sea surface temperature anomalies, wind shear studies, MJO analysis, and multimodal model assessments, Meteora identified a strong potential for cyclone formation as early as 7 days before landfall.

Cyclone Watch Issued:
May 13, 2020: Meteora tracked a developing low-pressure area.
May 15–16: Issued warnings as it evolved into a depression and a severe cyclone.
May 18: Declared it a Super Cyclone.
May 20: Accurately forecasted landfall near Gangasagar, West Bengal, at around 2:30 PM.

Key Forecasting Highlights:
Real-time satellite surveillance
Advanced numerical weather prediction models
Accurate wind speed and trajectory forecasts
Proactive alert dissemination across impacted areas,

History of Timely Cyclone Forecast

2021Cyclone Yaas

Cyclone Yaas: A Case Study by Meteora

Cyclone Yaas was a severe cyclonic storm that impacted Odisha, West Bengal, and neighboring regions in late May 2021. Wind speeds reaching up to 150 km/h caused significant damage worth USD 2.99 billion and resulted in 20 fatalities.

Early Detection and Forecasting by Meteora
Key Timeline:
21st May 2021: Formation of a low-pressure system.
23rd May 2021: Expected development into a deep depression.
25th May 2021: The system intensified into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.
26th May 2021: Landfall at Inchudi, Balasore (Odisha), with peak wind speeds of 150 km/h.

Factors Leading to Cyclone Formation:
High Sea Surface Temperatures (30–34°C) across the Bay of Bengal.
Favorable MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phases enhance convection.
Low Wind Shear and High Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.
Neutral ENSO and IOD conditions make the Bay of Bengal highly conducive for cyclogenesis.

📍 Impacted Regions :
RegionEffects
OdishaDirect landfall, heavy destruction
West BengalWidespread hazardous weather
Jharkhand, ChhattisgarhPartial impact with heavy rains and winds

👉 Read the full document.Cyclone Yaas

History of Timely Cyclone Forecast

2023Cyclone Michuyang

Cyclone Michaung: Cyclone Update by Meteora

On December 2, 2023, the Meteora Weather Service closely tracked the development of a deep depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal. With favorable conditions like high sea temperatures, low wind shear, and active MJO, it was projected to intensify into Cyclone Michaung, impacting major parts of India’s east coast.

Early Detection and Forecasting by Meteora
Key Timeline:
2nd December: Formation of a deep depression at 10.7°N, 84.6°E.
Within 24 Hours: Predicted to strengthen into a cyclonic storm.
By 3rd–4th December: Expected intensification into a severe cyclonic storm.
Landfall: Between 4th and 5th December near the Nellore–Visakhapatnam coast in Andhra Pradesh.
Maximum Intensity Expected:
At Sea: Winds 100–110 kmph (gusts up to 120 kmph)
At Landfall: Cyclonic storm to Severe Cyclone strength

📍 Forecasted Impact Zones:
StateImpact WindowExpected Effects
Andhra Pradesh3rd–5th DecExtreme heavy rain, 100+ kmph winds
Tamil Nadu3rd–5th DecHeavy rain, 70 kmph winds
Odisha4th–6th DecVery heavy rain, 90+ kmph winds
West Bengal5th–7th DecModerate rain, 30–40 kmph winds

👉 Read the full document. Cyclone Michuyang

History of Timely Cyclone Forecast

2024 Cyclone Remal

Cyclone Rimel: Pre-Cyclone Watch & Forecast (Meteora Perspective)

Overview: In late May 2024, Meteora Weather Service identified and tracked the development of a significant tropical system in the Bay of Bengal—eventually projected to become Cyclone Rimel. Thanks to early analysis and predictive modeling, Meteora issued crucial early warnings across potentially affected regions.

Early Cyclone Detection by Meteora – Initial Alert (22nd May 2024):

A well-marked low-pressure system over the west-central Bay of Bengal, supported by favorable meteorological conditions like
High sea surface temperature (SST)
Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Low vertical wind shear
High tropical cyclone heat potential
This led Meteora to predict cyclogenesis within 48 to 72 hours, with high confidence (70–100%).

Forecast Highlights:

Depression Date: 23rd May 2024
Cyclone Formation: 24th May 2024
Landfall Date: 26th–27th May 2024
Landfall Area: West Bengal & adjoining Bangladesh
Max Wind Speed: 135–145 km/h (Gusts up to 160 km/h)
Projected Intensity: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

Predicted Impact Zones (25th–27th May):
RegionForecasted Impact
West Bengal90+ kmph winds, widespread heavy rain
Odisha, Jharkhand, Tripura, Mizoram60–90 kmph winds, heavy rain
Other NE States, Bihar, UP, A&N IslandsLight to moderate rainfall, 40–60 kmph winds
👉 Read the full document. Cyclone Remal
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